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The UK Horse Racing Bot
The UK Horse Racing Bot
The UK Horse Racing Bot can be downloaded and installed as follows.
Please use Internet Explorer to make the installation and remember to back up any portfolios, if applicable, before upgrading.
Install the bot from: http://www.ie-software.com/downloads/UKHR/installer.exe.
Note
If the bot doesn't get past the login screen then the internal database engine isn't installed on your machine. Kill the bot with Task Manager and then download the database engine from Microsoft.
In this case go to the Microsoft SQL Server Compact page, scroll down about two thirds of the page to the Files in This Download section and then download and install the SSCERuntime-ENU-x86.msi build. (Those who are running 64-bit machines should download the SSCERuntime-ENU-x64.msi instead)
Bot Log Spreadsheet Template
This spreadsheet is for the detailed CSV reports which I consider to be superior to the ones available from the Tools menu.
To get these reports follow these steps:
Click on Start > All Programs > IE Software Data > Saved Data > UKHR
A tip: I make sure that the above UKHR folder has a shortcut on my desktop so that I can double click it so that File Explorer pops up. I then add the latest data to my spreadsheet.
These are the steps that I do to get the data from the CSV into the log spreadsheet.
- Open up the day's spreadsheet in the UKHR folder as well as the botlog sheet.
- Click top left and format everything to point 8 size.
- Select the top row and then put a filter on that row.
- In column S filter so that we can only see 0 (this is the amount staked).
- Delete all visible rows.
- Delete the title row. This will bring all the remaining rows back.
- Select from A1 to AJ1. Then select the whole of the depth of the data in the sheet.
- Copy (control c).
- Paste (control v) into the BotLog spreadsheet.
- Copy down columns AK-AO to the bottom of the sheet which brings in the formula.
The Excel template can be downloaded from here.
Archived Results
We have placed three and a half years of CSV files into two large files for download. These are ideal for analysis as they contain every single horse rated over this period along with the starting price (SP) results.
These files come in two formats. The first is a large CSV which can be imported into any spreadsheet application (though those with a 64,000 row limit may have to break this up into chunks and the second is an Excel 2007 binary import.
The files can be downloaded from here, though it is requested that the downloads should take place after 10.30pm each evening so that it won't interfere with the ratings upload for the subscribers.
Files:
CSV download (49 MB)
Excel 2007 download (106 MB)
Assorted Portfolios
These are by no means the total list of possibile portfolios. These are just some examples of what can be made after analysing the CSV files and the various Lab Notes.
Heavyweight Hitters
An all weather system which is aimed at horses which, even though they have been encumbered by extra weight, are judged to be in form and will overcome their extra weight and, at the same time, be a good price because of the weight being a perceived issue.
These are selected by being: All Weather, handicaps, 9.5 furlongs or fewer, in the top five rated horses, Weight Delta between 5 and 9 and Lst rated of -5 or more.
Recent results: 111 runs, 13 wins, 12% strike rate and 77% rate of return.
Download the portfolio here.
Tom Jones-2
The essential speed/weight system and seems to be the ideal system for, amongst all else, selecting mudlarks at good prices.
These are basicaly horses in the top eight of the ratings, has a speed value of at least 1, weight delta of -1 or lower and running in chase, be it in GB or Ireland. This is an essential addition to anyone's portfolio.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Rated 5 Value Horses (Handicaps)
These are perhaps the most optimum filtered of this category. The criteria is straightforward; any of the five top rated horse which are running in pure handicaps at more than value within GB only and only those selected which don't have a lay system against it.
The results for 2008 to Betfair SP are: 8,177 runs, 744 wins, 1,610 points profit, 9% strike rate and 19% ROI.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Rated 5 Value Horses (Stakes)
Like the handicaps, these are perhaps also the most optimum filtered of this category. The criteria is straightforward; any of the five top rated horse which are running on the flat or NHF in pure non-handicap races at more than value within GB only, and only those selected which don't have a lay system against it.
The results for 2008 to Betfair SP are: 2,082 runs, 188 wins, 443.9 points profit, 9% strike rate and 21% ROI.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Rated Value Horses At Certain Courses
Some courses the Model performs better on than others, which is to be expected. So, what if these stronger courses were followed? More details here on the Lab Notes page.
The results for 2008 to Betfair SP are: 2,170 runs, 339 wins, 753 points profit, 15% strike rate and 34% ROI.
Download the portfolio here.
TrForm 120 (Handicaps)
Any TrForm 120+ horse value within GB only and only those selected which don't have a lay system against it.
The results for 2008 to Betfair SP are: 3,032 runs, 358 wins, 210 points profit, 12% strike rate and 7% ROI. More details here on the Lab Notes page.
Download the portfolio here.
Vectis-2
One portfolio which simply must be present in any National Hunt portfolio. These are best worked in handicap hurdles, the UK and Ireland to a maximum price of 15/1. They are also useful in non-handicap flat stakes races and this portfolio can be replicated and modified, if so desired, for the flat stakes.
These are selected by simply having a '+' alarm figure.
Download the portfolio here.
Weight Delta
This is a larger large portfolio as to create this oneself would take quite a while. To save everyone having sit and construct 144 portfolios to cater for the weight deltas as per the Lab Notes the work has been done here. The criteria for these are basically value priced underscores for nine of the twelve underscores avoiding any selection where the horse has a Conn, Jockey or Trainer underscore.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Two Rated GB Handicaps to Value
This portfolio simply contains all the top two rated horses in each of the handicaps in GB to value. Note that the handicaps are what we call 'pure' handicaps; in other words no sellers, novices or the like. The Lab Notes show the results from 2008 and the results for this portfolio for that period to Betfair SP are 2,968 runs, 349 winners, 743 points profit, strike rate of 11.43% (giving the longest losing run of 64) and an ROI of a more than respectible 25%. An Excel worksheet showing the returns at different course types can be downloaded here.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Three Rated to Value, All Underscores
This portfolio utilises the underscores within the ratings and places one point on each of the underscores for each horse in the top three of the ratings which is above value.
This is derived from this Lab Note which show the results from 2008 to Betfair SP are 33,976 runs, 4,416 winners, 4,346 points profit, strike rate of 13% (giving the longest losing run of 75) and an ROI of 12,79%. An Excel worksheet showing the returns at different course types can be downloaded here.
Note that because one point is placed per underscore for each qualifying horse the stakes should be of a low percentage of the bank. In this portfolio we have set them to 0.1% stakes. Of course, like all the above portfolios, this can be edited if one so wishes.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Two Rated GB (Filtered)
If one examines this Lab Note then one can see that the Top Two Rated in the GB is profitable enough. However, with a little filtering to only have pure stakes and handicap races in these categories; All Weather handicap, Chase Stakes, Flat Handicap, Hurdle Handicap and the National Hunt Flat then one can improve the return. With these in 2008 the figures are 1,590 wins from 8,604 runners returning a profit of 1,178 points with a strike rate of 18% and an ROI of 13%.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Two Rated GB (Course Filtered)
Looking again at this Lab Note then one can see that some courses are more profitable than others for backing the top two blind. This is only a partial portfolio which selects the top two rated on the flat at both Ascot and Ayr. The idea of this portfolio is for the user to select his, or her, own courses and use this portfolio as a template and to add their own courses such as, for example, the flat at Nottingham. This is our first Do It Yourself portfolio as for this one we can't really hope to imagine what each person's ideal of minimum course profit, strike rate, ROI is. Therefore this one to update yourselves. As ever, help is at hand only a phone call away if needed.
Download the portfolio here.
RAdj Top Three Rated
Lab Note 27 shows the effect of backing the RAdj underscore horse if it's in the top three rated. This is a rather straightforward portfolio which has been improved by the race type filtering. One really needn't look much further than this one.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Rated UKHR-1
This Lab Note shows the top rated UKHR-1 figures and the better race types have been put into a portfolio.
Download the portfolio here.
Fred-1 Backs
This Lab Note shows the Fred-1 selections. The rules for the selections are, the top rated horses on the all weather, backed at one point per underscore, when the forecast SP is between 6/4 and 5/1 and if the race is not a pure stakes race. With these filters the figures for 2008 showed 3,937 points staked, 1,332 of those won giving a profit of 1.197 points with a strike rate of 33% and an ROI of 30%. It has been further suggested that one may be able to improve things a little by excluding Great Leighs (when it has racing once more) and also to exclude any selling races.
Download the portfolio here.
Trainer 5 Year Backs
This portfolio is derived from this selection web page. The rules are explained on this web page and this has been a system which has been profitable for the few years and finally has been coded up into a portfolio. This portfolio ought to be in every bot as it is based on the smaller, but successful, yards who concentrate on getting the winners rather than from the training fees.
Download the portfolio here.
A Laying Portfolio
This portfolio is one of perhaps thousands of good laying possibilities. Please adjust this portfolio to suit your needs and requirements. Basically, this is a collection of three laying portfolios; Unlikely Winners (Unwins) and the two LOST portfolios. They are for the GB only only because they haven't been tested yet for Ireland, so please feel free to make a test copy of this portfolio for adaption for your own testing. They are capped to an upper price of about 20 and to value. A few race types are excluded and they are heavily filtered by, principally, no good stall bias, no trainer form indicators, no tight races and no underscored horses.
Download the portfolio here.
Trainer Calendar and Trainer In Form
This portfolio has been derived from thinking about the Trainer Calendar. Yes, it's good to aim for a trainer who always does well in this fifteen day window each year but the concern is that though the trainer may be good at this moment in the year he may have some sort of virus in his yard. Whilst following the Trainer Calendar blind is profitable a test was done on forcing the selections to be only when the Trainer Recent Form (TrForm) was rated 120 or more. The results are vastly improved.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Rated Handicap Hurdles
The rules for these are rather straightforward; top rated hurdles, GB only, pure handicaps, ages 9 or lower (but removing the 2&3 year olds the performance is improved slightly). The data for this since the start of 2007 to August 2009 are 411 wins from 2,861 runs showing a profit of 1,141 points with a strike rate of 14% and an ROI of 39%, all one point per underscore. The data for this was derived from Lab Note 36.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Rated Maiden Flat
These are the the top rated flat maiden runners, one point per underscore. The rules for these are top rated underscore two and three year old horses in flat maidens on good-firm going. The data for this was derived from Lab Note 36. The figures for these from 2007 until August 1009 are 3,074 winners from 7,253 stakes showing a return of 1,097 points with a strike rate of 42% and an ROI of 15%.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Rated Handicap Chase
These are the the top rated handicapped chasers, one point per underscore. This could be considered to be two seperate portfolios; one for Great Britain and one for Ireland, so if any part of this is not required then one is, of course, at liberty to disable any unwanted sections. The data for there are derived from Lab Note 36. The rules for the GB portfoio are top rated chases, pure handicaps though amateur and apprentice jockeys are allowed. The horses aged between 6 and 8 year old show better smoothness but this is not required. The best goings are on the good and on the soft though no great harm is done if all going is permitted. The figures for these are 114 wins from 605 runs giving 657 points profit; that's a 19% strike rate and a 108% return in two and a bit years. The Irish portfolio is top rated, handicaps, not on the heavy ground, running to value in race class 100 or more and these have shown, since 2007, 46 winners from 221 runners giving a 490 point profit; this works out at a 21% strike rate and a 221% ROI.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Two Rated In Ireland
This is a rather simple portfolio which has been ticking over nicely here in my portfolio collection. The rules for this one are back the top two rated horses in Ireland if they are value. The race class has to be 100 or more but the price struck should be between 2.0 and 10.0. The horses' ages should be between 3 and 7 years old, inclusive. The current figures that I have (Sept 2nd 2009) are 30 wins from 121 runners, 37 points profit, 24% strike rate and an ROI of 31%.
Download the portfolio here.
Top Rated National Hunt Flat
The first of these two charts are for the NHF in Great Britain and the second are for the NHF in Ireland. These are the the top rated NHF runners, one point per underscore. The rules for these are as follows. GB: top rated NHF, no maiden, race class 100+, no heavy ground and a minimum price of 2.0. IRE: top rated NHF, minimum price and the going one of good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm. The data for this was derived from Lab Note 36.
Download the portfolio here.
Raw Race Type Underscore
This portfolio is the first version of the Raw Underscores as derived from Lab Note 39. This portfolio is not yet complete as more research and analysis has to be done on it, but it is based on various Race Types such as GB Turf stakes (725 wins from 2,731 runs, +802 points with a strike rate of 26% and an ROI of 29%.
Download the portfolio here.
RAdj Race Type Underscore
This portfolio is the first version of the RAdj Underscores as derived from Lab Note 40. This portfolio is not yet complete as more research and analysis has to be done on it, but it is based on various Race Types such as GB flat races (1,145 wins from 5,675 runs, +1,745 points with a strike rate of 30% and an ROI of 30%.
Download the portfolio here.
Raw Course Underscore
This portfolio contains the Raw Underscores as derived from Lab Note 39. This portfolio looks primarily at the courses and the best race types within that course. All selections are based on a strike rate of over 20% and a decent ROI.
Download the portfolio here.
RAdj Course Underscore
This portfolio contains the RAdj Underscores as derived from Lab Note 40. This portfolio looks primarily at the courses and the best race types within that course. All selections are based on a strike rate of over 20% and a decent ROI.
Download the portfolio here.
HCP 50+, Race Class 100+
This portfolio contains the portfolio as described in Lab Note 51. We're looking at horses running in Race Class of 100+ within the GB which are not in chases nor hurdles. The strike rate is about 20% and shows a decent ROI%, because this excludes races over obstacles this is more prolific in the summer but is still a good all year around portfolio.
Download the portfolio here.
Assorted Filters
These are some of the filters which are available in the System Builder in the bot. With these one is able to construct really specialised portfolios. If one wishes, for example, to back the third top rated Conn underscore at Southwell on the all-weather in a claiming race then one is now able to so.
This list is no means exhaustive as it will continue to grow.
Alarm <alarm>
Lists the various horses running with a certain alarm, for example, 'Alarm e'.
Course <name>
Simply a list of horses running at that course. So filtering with, say, "Course Redcar" will only filter in (or out) horses running at this course.
Beginner
Lists all the horses running in beginner races.
Maiden
Lists all the horses running in novice races.
Novice
Lists all the horses running in maiden races.
Auction
Lists all horses in auction races.
Claimer
Lists all horses in claiming races.
Selling
Lists all horses in selling races.
Not Novice nor Seller
Lists all horses which are not running in novice nor selling races.
Listed
Horses running in Listed Races today.
Entrant With Forecast Odds On
Lists all horses in all races in which there is a forecast odds-on horse entered. This could be useful for those who wish to avoid, or even target, these types of races.
Horse Frm 1 Plus
Lists all the horses whose Frm (recent form) rating is 1.0 or more.
Horse Not Frm 1 Plus
Lists all the other horses which are not in the 'Horse Frm 1 Plus' list.
Hunter Chase
Yes. A list of hunter chasers for those who wish to specialise in these races.
Lst Minus 13 And Less
Lists all the horses whose Lst (latest form) is -13 and lower.
Top Frm and Top Lst
Lists all the horses which are top ranked in both the Frm and Lst fields.
Weight Delta <value>
Lists all the horses whose WtD (weight delta) has this value, for example horses with WtD -3 will be listed in the Weight Delta -3 list.
Forecast 17 to 1 Plus
Lists all the horses whose forecast SP is over 16/1.
Value Over 15 to 1
Lists all the horses whose value price is 16/1 or higher. Similar filters are available for 14/1 and higher and 16/1 and higher for those who wish to fine-tune these filters.
Horse In Tight Race
Indicates a horse running in a race which is judged to be 'tight'. This is defined as a race where the difference in the rated value of the top rated and the penultimate horse is fourteen pounds or fewer. The penultimate horse is used because in some tight races a real rag can be in the field and the low rating of one such horse shoudn't detract from the fact that the race is tight. This could be a useful filter for layers or backers.
Days Out <range>
Lists all the horses which have last been racing so many days ago. There are two numbers associated with this filter, for example, "Days Out 022 028" which means that in this case the horse last ran between 22 and 28 days ago (inclusive). These bands will match, as much as possible, the bands within Holmes' reports. If any bands that you wish are not present then please do let us know.
Age <value>
Lists all the horses with that age.
Last Run Finished Ninth Or Worse
Lists all the horses which didn't finish in the first eight.
Pulled Up Horse
Lists all the horses which were pulled up in their last race.
Trainer Form 120
Lists all the horses whose trainer's TrForm is rated 120 or more.
TJ 10Wins 10Profit
Lists all the horses whose trainer and jockey combination over the last five years had at least 10 wins and had 10 points profit to SP.
TJC 5Wins 5Profit
Lists all the horses whose trainer and jockey combination at this course over the last five years had at least 5 wins and had 5 points profit to SP.
Trainer 2Weeks 5Wins 5Profit
Lists all the horses whose trainer over the last two weeks had at least 5 wins and had 5 points profit to SP.
Trainer 10Wins 10Profit
Lists all the horses whose trainer over the last five years had at least 10 wins and had 10 points profit to SP.
Trainer Calendar 10Wins 10Profit
Lists all the horses whose trainer in the Calendar Window over the last five years had at least 10 wins and had 10 points profit to SP. The Trainer Calendar window is defined as the 15 day period centered on today's date and then extended back through the five years.
Value Over 14/1
Lists all the horses whose value figure (i.e. reflects the true chance of the horse winning) is 14/1 or more. There are similar filters for 15/1 and other values.
Trainer Form Lower Than 80
Lists all the horses whose TrForm (Recent Trainer Form) is rated 79, or lower. This is the opposite of the Trainer Form 120 filter.
TJCR No Loss
Lists all the horses whose Trainer/Jockey/Course/Race Type combination over the last five years return at least five wins but don't make a loss.
Class 100 Race
Lists all the horses in races whose Race Class is determined to be 100 or higher.
Class 99 and Lower
Lists all the horses in races whose Race Class is determined to be 99 or lower.
Trainer Form 100
Lists all the horses whose trainer's TrForm is rated 100 or more.
Apprentice Race
Lists all the horses running in an Apprentice Race.
HCP 50
Lists all the horses whose HCP is 50 or higher.
Underscore <name> 5to1
Lists all the horses with the named underscore whose forecast SP is 5/1 or lower.
Evening Race
Lists all the horses running in an evening meeting. An evening meeting is defined as one with at least one race starting at 8pm or later.
Regression Positive Horse
Lists all the horses whose Going and Distance Regression figures are at least 1.0 for both.
Regression Positive Horse 3
Lists all the horses whose Going and Distance Regression figures are at least 1.5 for both.
U <name> Top3 Rank
Lists all the horses with the named underscore whose ranking in that field is in the top three, for example the "U RAdj Top3 Rank" lists the three best RAdj rated horses in the race.
Horse <name> Negative
Lists all the horses with the named underscore whose rating is negative for that field, for example the "Horse Cls Negative" lists the horses with negative Cls figures.
Stalls AW Negative
Lists all the horses running on the all-weather with a negative stalls bias.
Horses Not Top 20pc RAdj
Lists all the horses whose RAdj is not within 20% of the highest RAdj value within that race. This filter will only list a few horses.
Horses Not Top 20pc Percentile RAdj
Lists all the horses whose RAdj is not within the top 20% percentile RAdj values within that race. This filter should list approximately 80% of the horses within the race.
RDist Underscore
Lists all the horses whose Distance Regression is the highest in the race and is positive.
RGoing Underscore
Lists all the horses whose Going Regression is the highest in the race and is positive.
Regression Going 1
Lists all the horses whose Going Regression is 1.0 or greater. There is also a corresponding place filter.
Regression Distance 1
Lists all the horses whose Distance Regression is 1.0 or greater. There is also a corresponding place filter.
Horse Within 12 Pounds
Lists all the horses whose final rating is within twelve pounds of the top rated horse of the race. The top rated horse is included.
Stalls Minus 10pc Lower Bias
Lists all the horses whose stall bias is -10% or lower.