Weak Favourites
Our sister site, Weak Favourites, has been running since the autumn of 2004 and has been very well received.
The Weak Favourites site works by processing all the horses on the day's cards and then running them through a series of filters. The more filters that a horse fails the more interested we become.
Currently there are ten filters; some are rather simple ones such as the tolerance for today's ground or distance whilst the others are more complex mathematical filters which we have designed and developed.
At the moment there are about ten filters though this number can increase at any time with each release of the Model. We are very interested in horses which fail all filters or all but one.
The horses which fail all filters are what we class as Unlikely Winners and those which pass one filter we call More Likely Winners.
The horses which we see as being favourites, or near favourites, which are in these lists are then selected as being our Lays. Lay-0 horses are the ones which pass zero filters and Lay-1 horses have just passed one filter.
These Lay-0 and Lay-1 horses are listed each day on the Weak Favourites web site and the results of the Lay-0s and the Lay-1s are available for viewing.
The Unlikely Winners and the More Likely Winners have evolved into a life of their own. They were developed as an aid to the backer or layer as a list of horses which we thought that could be discounted from the reckoning. Then people started to lay these horses themselves and the nickname 'UnWins' has developed for these horses in the forum.
As with most of our proposed horses to back or lay we take great stead in what we call True Odds or Value. We calculate what we think that the value of horse ought to be and then, in the case all horses on the Weak Favourites site mention the value price for that animal. The idea being that this is the maximum price which one should lay it. If the price rises above value then we recommend that the horse is forgotten about.
The Lay-0 and Lay-1 selections are in profit as can be seen from our results pages, plus the Unwins can create good returns too. With careful picking of the Unwins it isn't uncommon to hear of people on the forum mentioning that they have had a monthly return of over 100 points.
We're very proud of the Weak Favourites page and these selections form a very significant part of our betting portfolio.