UK Horse Racing (Malc) 17-Nov-2004 Wed 09:51 This forum is to discuss the book "Lay, Back and think of Winning" by Nigel Paul. The idea behind this mini-forum is that this book could be very interesting and useful to us all. And because of this I have created a new mini-forum. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 17-Nov-2004 Wed 10:39 A quick flick through this 170-odd page book shows a lot of screenshots from Betfair. The first chapter is the usual "How I got into racing" and can be skipped though the author does show his ability to write. The second chapter has a couple of interesting things. The first is that he explains wonderfully the chances of horses. He shows that a horse that should be 16/1 has a 5.88% chance of success and that a horse with a 33/1 chance has a 2.94% chance. Now you know why I don`t lay above 16/1 for a 33/1 horse; the margin is too slim. In the second chapter he recommends two books which I have on my shelves; "Taking Chances - Winning With Probability" by John Haigh and "Braddock`s Complete Guide to Race Horse Selection and Betting" which are also both recommended by me. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 17-Nov-2004 Wed 11:02 Chapter three is excellent. It gives a description of two types of bets what he calls `Safe Windows` and `Profitable Windows`. The Safe Window is where you have a risk-free bet by matching a previous back (or lay) so that if the horse wins you get a profit and if it loses then you break even. Rather simple stuff. The Profitable Window is what we get by, for using the Arb. Calculator, by matching your own back or lay so that whichever horse wins a profit is made. This is what I do at the moment manually, but a sentence or two in this chapter on something which has never occured to me; but blindlingly obvious and something that I should have known has revealed how I could have increased my trading profits. It`s that I have been closing the trade (i.e. making a Profitable Window) so that whichever won I would get the same. But the thing is unless I am trading on a horse whose value is greater than evens then the chances that the horse will lose; so I should be weighting the stakes so that if the horse loses I will make a greater profit than if it wins. As I say, obvious stuff. And that one sentence will pay for the book in one day! trayler 17-Nov-2004 Wed 17:37 Malc.What mental arithmetic do you use to calculate weighting the stakes that if the horse loses you make a greater profit.I would personaly prefer no profit from the horse winning at all. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 17-Nov-2004 Wed 19:57 That is exactly what I do. Once the lay is arranged, I calculate the back side to the amount that I want. Then I round UP to the nearest penny and then back to that. So, this means then if the horse that I traded wins I may win between 0p and 11p, but if it loses I win about £3 - £4 for a £30 initial lay. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 18-Nov-2004 Thu 12:40 Just tried my first little trade to see if the book makes sense. The market according to the book revolves around Cherub in the 12:40. So I decided to give it a go and I executed a small Safe Window with backing Cherub at 1.34 and then laid it again at 1.33 . Not a huge trade but one to get my toes wet, so to speak. Sundew 18-Nov-2004 Thu 20:27 Have found the book interesting reading as far as I have got, and there are some obvious points that we have been missing. Did a nice little trade on one race this afternoon, which was pleasing. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 18-Nov-2004 Thu 20:55 Sundew; am half way through Chapter 7 and for the first time I am considering the favourite. So far with this chapter he is telling us in which direction to expect the money to repel the price. However, he seems to be watching the market to predict the winner. Now, I would have thought that trading wouldn`t matter so much who you think will win. At the moment I have been trading at above 10s. What I do there is to try to get a trade, or two, so that if the horse loses then I win a few pounds and if the horse wins then I win a couple of coppers. It is important that I don`t lose anything. If I can do this for a pair of £30 matched Safe Window trades where the income is on the lay side (i.e. if the horse loses then I win) then the return could be anything from £2.50 to £5.00. It also seems to be a lot less stressful `out there`. Sundew 19-Nov-2004 Fri 07:52 Morning Malc. I couldn`t get on a lower price horse yesterday, so I picked one out that was 29. I did a good trade on this. I then went back in for a second bite of the cherry on the same horse, and it ended up a good trade indeed. horatio 19-Nov-2004 Fri 22:52 Malc, As a complete novice, will this book give me enough knowledge to start trading on the Exchange? Mike Sundew 20-Nov-2004 Sat 11:59 Hi Horatio - Sundew here. Couldn` get much more of a novice than I am, but the book explains very clearly what we need to know to get going. I have done a few trades, and they have worked, which is satisfying. You will need to read things a couple of times, then away you go. Best of luck. horatio 20-Nov-2004 Sat 13:43 Hi Sundew, Thanks for that response. I will give it a go then. Mike UK Horse Racing (Malc) 21-Nov-2004 Sun 14:32 Horatio, I understand that the book is better if you buy it via our link. It`s given me lots of food for thought and has opened lots of mental doors and so far today I have traded making £108.61 with £30 trades. And when this race finishes then you can add either another £3.96 or £8.00 to this figure. I expect that it will be the former though. Mick 22-Nov-2004 Mon 09:17 Good morning all, I have ordered the book via Malcs link this very morning,looking forward to its arrival hopefully before christmas,then will be able to look learn and profit. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 22-Nov-2004 Mon 09:20 Morning Lavinia, the good thing about this book is its clarity. Also for the higher level trades (I don`t trade on anything too close to favouritism; at least not yet) one doesn`t need broadband. It`s a good book though I do doubt the man`s sanity when it comes to his staking plan. The "I`ll place 100% of my bank on this type of trade!" alarms me somewhat. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 22-Nov-2004 Mon 09:30 There`s the personal details link which you can use. It`s to the left where it always has been... UK Horse Racing (Malc) 22-Nov-2004 Mon 09:31 Or it would be if it works. Give me until after breakfast and I will fix it. Mick 22-Nov-2004 Mon 09:45 Yes ok Malc,cheers no panic after breakfast is fine. Mick 22-Nov-2004 Mon 10:20 Thats better thankyou Malc,look forward to being able to join in the chat. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 22-Nov-2004 Mon 11:49 Just done a HOOF trading in the 12:00 at Southwell. It was plain that Somerset West was going to drop in price, so I got on with a £30 lay at 7.4 (liability £198) and then backed it at 7.0 a few moments later. Again without broadband. Roger 22-Nov-2004 Mon 13:22 Did the same thing on the same horse from 7.0 to 6.6. Haven`t finished reading the right chapter to do anything other than "not lose", though Roger 22-Nov-2004 Mon 13:24 Don`t remember seeing much about getting back out if the prices go the wrong way. I`ll have to go back and have another look, unless he does something later? UK Horse Racing (Malc) 22-Nov-2004 Mon 13:26 You may have passed it. It`s at the bottom of page 76. Roger 22-Nov-2004 Mon 13:41 Thanks, I`ll have a look. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 22-Nov-2004 Mon 13:46 I`m going to have another look; I`ve just had a very expensive lesson when I got a trade all wrong. david 22-Nov-2004 Mon 17:55 Malc - you should have set a stop loss price - there is software you can buy that will do this automatically for you - I will buy it if I can get nore info from the company as to exactly who they are http://www.autobet.co.uk/software.php Sundew 23-Nov-2004 Tue 09:02 Hi all - I had a BIG loss on trading, before I had the book. But this was not due to the system, after the Betfair update. Ny computer "froze" and I had to re-boot. By the time things were up and running again, it was too late. Another good reason to observe the 2 minute rule of being out of the trading by then. Ann Truffle 23-Nov-2004 Tue 14:29 Got the book today. Looks very interesting. Have only browsed through it and it looks, at first glance, that it could be very useful. Think I will hve to read it a few times though as I am a bit slow on the uptake. Mick 23-Nov-2004 Tue 15:02 Recived my book this afternoon,only ordered yesterday,first class of course,now for some serious reading. Pat 23-Nov-2004 Tue 15:55 Hi David, I am also interested in the autobet software so if you find out any more I would be glad of the info. Have read the book through once and had a few successful small trades. Will now have another look and hope to be more confident! UK Horse Racing (Malc) 23-Nov-2004 Tue 18:15 I`ve read the book and it`s really one method with a couple of variations. I`m still happier with the higher priced lays rather than the the lays at the sharper end of the market. There are a couple of things in there which do alarm me; the bit where for low odds he`s willing to stake his complete bank for example. The bit that I want to get into my head is how to react when a lay goes wrong and how and when to bail out. The last part of the book (where the OddsChecker was brought into play) went into areas where I am not too interested but the pure trading is very interesting. I`ll give it another read and then I`ll write up a review of it later. However, as a catalyst it`s given me real food for thought. Sundew 23-Nov-2004 Tue 22:10 Hi Mal - "bailing out". I have had to do this on several occasions. I have found that it is not possible to get a "perfect" match, and one is always left with something in red. This is horrendous in a really bad match, where, say, £20 could be payable if things are not matched. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 23-Nov-2004 Tue 23:11 Sundew; the thing is that when one plays the trading at about 10s and above there is a good chance that the market will move back in your favour. What I do for the higher priced horses is to assume that they will lose. So I lay them first and then I match the lay with a bet which will recover the same funds (or a few pennies more). So if the horse loses then I will get the full difference between the back and the lay multiplied by the stake and if it wins then I will either win nothing or a few pence. There is some advice in the book which I can`t understand and that`s to set the P/L figures to be net of commission. I do mine before commission because it`s easier to get an overview of what is going on. Then again that could have been writren before Betfair installed their new random number generator in their commission points scheme. I`ve just had another go reading through the last section of the book (where he deals with form) and I just can`t get to grips of his trading with form. If his form reading is that good then why is he messing about with trading. To me trading and backing/laying horses are two totally separate subjects. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 24-Nov-2004 Wed 10:08 If anyone has ever messed about with Techical Analysis with stock price movement then have a look at Myson (a Roger-1 lay) in the 2.25 at Lingfield. This is a classic triangle type indicator and if this were a share then we could expect to see a massive breakout one way or another. I wonder if it will... UK Horse Racing (Malc) 24-Nov-2004 Wed 15:43 Well, I`m really enjoying this trading lark. Did about a dozen trades today and only two didn`t earn me anything. In the current race I could make a small loss if my outsider wins but a gain is expected. In the last race a profit is to be made if an outsider loses and a whole one penny win if it wins! I`ll stick to my stake of £30 lays for the time being and then, perhaps later, I will increase my stakes to £40 and slowly build up. trayler 24-Nov-2004 Wed 16:19 Malc.Are you useing weight of money as Foinavon states to select your trades or does the book give other ways?I have put in an order for the book at the library,because I have asked for it they will get it,cheep skate arn`t I. Drifter 24-Nov-2004 Wed 17:04 Having read this book over the last few days, whilst on first impressions it appears to contain a great deal of information, as Malc says "it’s really one method with a couple of variations". Also, I feel that the boast of `guaranteed winning systems` is somewhat misleading since if a trade goes the wrong way and there is no opportunity to correct things then the only thing that`s guaranteed is the possibility of a big loss if the loss is confined to one horse or a certain smaller loss if the race is settled i.e. the loss is equalised over the field. The whole process is somewhat over simplified and made to look incredibly easy - if only! There are some very sharp operators out there just waiting to take your money. In the main, I agree with the reviews on Amazon in that this book is useful for a complete beginner, but anyone currently trading will have seen much of this before. A lot of this information can be picked up via various forums, especially Betfair but it is useful to have it all written down in one place. I would strongly suggest that anyone trying this out with cash confine themselves to £2 bets until they can predict market movements correctly most of the time. Overall, I would recommend this book for anyone wanting a good basic grounding to trading and understanding the exchanges, but there are a couple of things which I think are worth considering; In screenshot 24 on page 94, he suggests backing Sporting Gesture at 2.18 but there is a far smaller sum in the 2.2 lay window. The best trade here would normally be to ask for a price of 2.2 to back the horse and this would probably be taken up before the price falls giving a bigger profit. He intimates that ‘spoofing’ - which he refers to as ‘market manipulation’ is ‘not very common’. I would disagree and consider this something to be very wary of. As a potential example, see screenshot 28 on page 98. There is £7069 waiting to be taken up on Anan Pekan but this is way out of proportion to everything else on that screen. Faced with this, unless I was already in a trade, I would keep my hands well away from the mouse and keyboard fully expecting £7000 of that money to disappear at any second leaving the price to rise instead of fall as appears likely. OK I know that, in this instance, it did fall but that is unusual - far more probable that in a similar situation it would be false money. With regard to Autobet Pro which has been referred to below, I have this program. Whilst it does have some useful features such as a constantly updated total of the amounts outstanding on each side, the main problem is the lack of reliability of the stop loss feature. When this fails to kick in, it means a frantic scrabble on Betfair chasing a price which is usually moving rapidly in the wrong direction. Also, currently the program cannot cope with an order which has only been partially filled and goes on to place a trade in the opposite direction for the full amount. These problems make it extremely risky trading large sums but, hopefully, will be corrected shortly. Apart from an e-mail address there is no information whatsoever regarding the vendors of this program and in order to use it is necessary to log in via their server. This presumably means that if they were to cease trading then the program would be useless! Had I known all this, would I have bought it? No, although by careful trading using small amounts, I have managed to recover the cost of this program but rarely use it now as I am waiting until something which works better becomes available - get working Malc! foinavon 24-Nov-2004 Wed 18:49 Drifter, I quite agree with you. The software is not much use if it doesn`t compensate when only part of the stake is matched on the first trade. This is what we all need:- http://www.winningonline.co.uk/software/ But a little expensive I think 12 months @ £4950 (inc. VAT) = £95 per week 6 months @ £2950 (inc. VAT) = £113 per week 3 months @ £1750 (inc. VAT) = £145 per week I have a feeling though that when you had mastered it you wouldn`t be long recouping your money. Roger 24-Nov-2004 Wed 22:00 My problem is that I am using Betfair refresher, and I have it set to 4 seconds. Any quicker and I can`t see where the relative money is. Whether it was bad luck or not, I don`t know, but having put in a lay, the price was going up so fast that I had to chase it up to get matched, by which time it was coming down again. I ended up with covered bets, with higher lay than back, praying that the horse lost, which it did, so I didn`t lose any money, but got badly scared, and I watched a few other races and couldn`t see a solid period of raising or falling price, merely a fast shuttling action, which makes me wonder whether I can ever trade at all. david 24-Nov-2004 Wed 22:47 Roger - you can have two betfair pages open - set one to 4 seconds refresh and one to 1 second - also have a price ready and primed (submitted and waiting for your final yes) to get out of the trade if it starts to go the wrong way - and they will - you will find you only get it right about 70% of the time - but this is enough to make money on - also use clues - I use banned Bets dutcher - this is quite well subscribed - so I know that in most cases these horses will fall in price generally - and especially after banned Bets puts up its selections - so use this sort of information Finally - do all your trades in a third window with no refresh on - I have two monitors connected to my computer - it really helps) Roger 24-Nov-2004 Wed 23:10 David, Thanks, you mean two or three complete Betfair versions in different windows - never thought of that. If I ever get my main machine installed on its radio network I have a Parhelia video card driving three monitors on that. I was beginning to wonder whether I`d ever need it, because it was bought during the life of my first laying system, where I had several oddscheckers open, etc. It sounds perfect for trading, now you`ve described your set-up. Meanwhile I`ll try it with separate windows on my laptop to see the effect. Thanks again, that sounds gold-dust advice. Drifter 24-Nov-2004 Wed 23:13 Foinavon, this does look to be a good program. The main advantage I think is that it uses Betfairs API (whatever that is) so it links directly to Betfair without using the normal screen and is much faster. I have had dealings with Lee Keys before who certainly knows his racing. However, I have an aversion to giving Winning Line any money as they have cost me in the past thanks to their poor quality tips. Roger, I was writing a reply to your previous message when I saw that David had already replied saying very much what I was going to say. The only real difference was to say look to take just one or two ticks at a time and build profits gradually. You don`t normally see a long trend one way or the other shortly before the off. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 06:43 Thanks, Drifter. Yes, I wasn`t going to wait too long once I got a profit, (it would be nice to actually get one!) I just meant looking at the odds history graph for the few races I checked there seemed to be no nice recent slope that I could have been on. I know I mustn`t use the slope for detecting the trend. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 25-Nov-2004 Thu 09:31 Trayler, back to <a href="#msg44">[44]</a>; yes I am using Weight of Money as Foinavon suggests. The book does the same. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 25-Nov-2004 Thu 09:44 Drifter, the example you mentioned on page 94 for Sporting Gesture would have me thinking that was a good Back situation with the lay to follow. I have been thinking about trading software and I am thinking that the way to have one is to use the Betfair API. API stands for Application Program Interface and is either documentation or code which one can use to interface one`s code to the Application, in this case Betfair. I`ve got a copy of the printout somewhere knocking around and I have been slowly thinking of ideas. One of the ways which I am looking is to have it running as a black box and not as a trading screen. Of course one can shove in various parameters to make it work but I think that this is the way to go rather than to present the user with a trading panel. This will take some work and I will sometime start something based upon the Foinavon posting a hundred years ago on the main forum. I can see why Autobet do what they do; they stop you passing on the software to someone else. What they will do is to log the IP address each blink and if the same account is alternating between two IP addresses then they know that someone ripped them off. Of course if they go bust then either the code won`t work OR they may have made it so that if there is no authentication possible then it will be allowed to continue. Roger, that refresh screen thing. If you start trading outside of the three favourites then you`ll find that you won`t need that refresh facility at all. Often I have time to get a cup of tea when trading at about 9s and upwards. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 10:37 Malc, I never fancied the sort of trading that entails those high odds. In the book, by using the favourite and mybe the second, he limits your potential loss by keeping to low odds. I`m re-reading it now to see whether I`ve missed some vital detail. As I remember it, he said that some bets are best as HOOF, some as Higher Lay, but I can`t remember how to decide which is best for a particular situation, so I`m not going to trade until I`ve revised. I agree with the remarks below about the book. I skipped the sections on in-running and form-reading, and it boils down to just two trading methods, but worth the money. Incidentally, the bit where he lays the whole field at 3.05 puzzled me. Firstly, in the races I`ve been looking at, 3.05 wouldn`t attract any backs at all. Secondly, since he made a profit with the winner matched, why cancel the bets - surely the more matches the more profit? Or was that an attempt to stop the winner matching but it failed? UK Horse Racing (Malc) 25-Nov-2004 Thu 12:15 Roger, ah the laying the whole field bit at 3.05. I have no idea what that was about. Why was he giving this away? I didn`t like this at all and, anyway, this is about when I was getting tired of the book. Trading those odds isn`t as frightening as the lower odds. For the lower odds he recommends laying the whole bank! Now, that is rather frightening! Also the amount of money required at those levels to make anything means that rather than the price differencial is large the amount of funds have to be large. And one can just get as burned as easily in this price bracket as any other. If you`re planning to use the form for finding long term trades, i.e. start off in the morning then then lay later then using the ratings to get a good price in the morning can be good. For example, I backed Migwell this mornings at 11.0 (Uttoxeter 2.35) and now I can lay it for about 9s. The ratings got me that Profitable Window trade. HOOFs seem to be geared to back the favourite to win with no downside if it loses (about 33% strike rate). Higher Lays are laying the more outsiders to lose and that`s what I do. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 12:33 Malc, What frightens me about this whole trading thing is the power cut/screen goes blank/Betfair goes off, etc. when you`ve got got half your trade on. Now on your Migwell bet, what happens if you can`t get back to complete the trade? Also, if you`re not using trading volumes to spot the trend, how do you know Migwell be lower thia afternoon? UK Horse Racing (Malc) 25-Nov-2004 Thu 12:37 Roger, look at the ratings. Tell me that Migwell isn`t a good bet at 11s. If there is a powercut this afternoon (and that is an excellent point!) then I am happy to keep with the bet. At this time of day, or rather, at that time of day any trades are built on the search for value by looking at horses which are overpriced. Migwell is one such example. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 12:47 Malc, Now you have immediately lost me. You say it was overpriced at 11.0 when you backed it. I can see it is top-rated and good value and all the other things that everyone says mean it`s good to bet on, but I don`t back, and all I see is that the estimated SP is 14/1, so surely the price is on the way up? The whole attraction of the bok is that it is giving me a way to find trades (the volume balance). foinavon 25-Nov-2004 Thu 12:49 Re laying the field at 3.05. I borrowed the book yesterday from Sundew and haven`t got to that part yet but I do know what he means as I have used that method a number of times with varying success but only in running and on races of 8f and above with about 12 runners where the fav is at least 4/1. Also I laid at 3.0. When they get to about 3 or 4 furlongs from home of when one horse begins to put its head in front you cancel all bets and with any luck four or more bets have been matched. Three bets matched you break even. Timing is the key here. Leave it too late to cancel and you only have the winner matched, too early and you have none matched. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 25-Nov-2004 Thu 12:55 Looking at Migwell (2:35 Uttoxeter) the value price is 4/1 and it`s top rated. I`m not too bothered here about the SP column. I look at the other rating columns and I see that there are positives in all of the columns; nice little drop in class, nice last run, half decent speed ratings and, in fact, nothing to be alarmed at. The value price is 4/1. I look on the exchanges and I can see that I can get it at 10/1 (11.0). Now tell me whether this is not a value bet or not? I think that this is good value, and not only that is far too high a price at 10/1. So, I backed it. Now, my thinking is that if the horse`s price continues to go out I`ll keep my bet because I think that I have a good bet. If it comes in, as it expect it to because it is overpriced then I`ll trade it. That`s what this chap was doing in this book (more or less) with his form stuff. That`s what some people do with the Unlikley Favourites; they`ll trade those with an initial lay if the data looks right and if they can`t get the matching closing trade then they still have, they hope, an Unlikely Winner which they have laid. I look at the ratings each morning for horses to back. If I can I will trade them if the opportunity arises otherwise I will be happy to keep the backed bet open. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:01 foinavon, "Leave it too late to cancel and you only have the winner matched, too early and you have none matched." I don`t understand that. When did the three or four that we want match then? Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:08 Malc, Two things strike me. One, you know how to read the ratings and pick winners - I don`t, and I`m the sort of poor twit the book is meant to help. Two, you are mixing backing with trading, and I don`t quite see why you would trade what you have achieved, a good price on a value back, which, as has been often pumped into me, will profit in the long run, for a much smaller return, even if it is at no risk. As for expecting the price to fall, if you are in the right room, raise your eyes to the sign above your desk... :o) Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:10 Oh no! That`s the one thing that doesn`t come from the Model, isn`t it. Belay that bit. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:12 Roger, the book has a couple of interesting things in there about form. When he dicusses in-match tennis and football the chap knows a little about the game, ie form. The whole of the back part of the book is about form so that he can get his trades lined up. I may decide to stop backing horses but continue to trade them. I don`t know yet. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:21 Malc, Somewhere in my genes there is a complete block on ever being able to understand form, etc. When he started talking about tennis, football, Racing Post, I just flicked, I`m afraid... UK Horse Racing (Malc) 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:24 Roger, it wasn`t well written. The tennis, he said, assumed that you have to know something about the sport. foinavon 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:25 Roger The idea is to lay the field at 3.0 in running and HOPE that four or more get matched before you click on cancel. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:32 foinavon, So if you left it, you would get the winner, but would you not possibly get some more as well to counteract the loss on the winner? Or once the winner gets matched there won`t be any others I suppose. foinavon 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:37 If you didn`t cancel then more often than not you would only get the winner matched. Other times of course when a few are battling it out at the finish you would get more but in my experience it`s best to cancel early or when you think the time is right so you must watch the race closely. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:39 Thanks, foinavon, Pass on my regards, please :o) foinavon 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:44 I will Roger The best races are large fields with a high priced fav. Roger 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:51 Cheers, I must take a look at a few in action, then, although of course it will be difficult to see whether any matches would have occurred. foinavon 25-Nov-2004 Thu 13:54 It is difficult to tell. Quite often you don`t know if you`ve had any matched until you`ve cancelled. foinavon 25-Nov-2004 Thu 14:04 I found this website yesterday which some of you may find useful, especially you Malc if you want to create your own trading software. http://bdp.betfair.com/apisolutions.php UK Horse Racing (Malc) 25-Nov-2004 Thu 15:57 Thanks for the link, Foinavon; shouldn`t there be an apostrophe in their web page title? I think that the first thing for me is to create a dummy interface which I can program against. It seems that they say that the first month or two weeks is free when starting the software; but that isn`t enough time; so what I will have to do is to start to create my own data feed with the same interface as they have and then work on that then buy the licence for the API. Drifter 25-Nov-2004 Thu 16:38 Malc, reference your comment "Drifter, the example you mentioned on page 94 for Sporting Gesture would have me thinking that was a good Back situation with the lay to follow." You are quite correct, it is a good back situation. I was just pointing out that the £4938 under 2.22 is the buffer which will probably stop the price rising but since the £135 under 2.2 is considerably less than the £1208 available to back, in all probability the back column will hit 2.2 before the price falls. So by putting in an order at 2.2 you would almost certainly get an extra tick in the trade. Not a lot but it all adds up. UK Horse Racing (Malc) 30-Nov-2004 Tue 11:02 Had a go trading on the US markets last night. I made two Safe Windows on one race at Turfway Park and then the next trade could have cost me a bundle. A lesson learned; there isn`t enough liquidity to play the US markets at all unless one knows the form. But for pure market trading it`s nigh on impossible. Sundew 1-Dec-2004 Wed 07:36 Hi Malc - I too had a little dabble in the American markets the other night, but found that the liquidity was not there, and it would have been too stressful to do this on a regular basis. Opeted out after a couple of tries. Am enjoying trading on the English markets though. Roger 2-Dec-2004 Thu 09:35 I have hit a snag in trading on the favourite(s) in a race, per the book. The problem is that I have probably already got lay bets matched or offered on the horse as a result of following one of the lay sources. I`m finding it impossible to trade on the same horse - I can`t keep track of the individual bets, even if they are all separately noted on the screen. I`m wondering whether it might be worth opening another Betfair account just for trading - someone mentioned recently that it was possible. Major 932 3-Dec-2004 Fri 14:19 Good afternoon everyone, I have just registered and am interested in getting hold of a copy of `Lay back and think of winning`. Can anyone help me please? I have looked in the Book Shop and it doesn`t appear to be in there. Thanks. Mick 3-Dec-2004 Fri 16:36 Major, go to Book Shop,look in menu on the left and tick sports betting,the title can be found there. Major 932 5-Dec-2004 Sun 18:52 Thanks Mick, going there now. I think I have a lot to learn here! UK Horse Racing (Malc) 9-Dec-2004 Thu 19:43 Roger to solve this problem I have a sheet of A4 on my desk in front of me (along with calculator and pencils) and I record each trade as it opens and the liability and then I record what I need to get out. I work purely from this sheet of paper. I find it`s useful because sometimes I can have three or four trades in operation (i.e. open and the second part is not matched) and I need to see which needs to be closed as the clocks tick towards the deadline. Roger 10-Dec-2004 Fri 13:32 Do I dare take my eyes off the screen long enough to write??!! Since I posted 80, I have stopped trading. If I resume, it will be on higher-priced horses, which I won`t be laying, and the prices should change more slowly, then I think a paper note would work fine. Thanks, Malc. david 16-Dec-2004 Thu 23:43 Now read the book - was very disappointed - did not tell me anything I did not already know - or give any deeper insight - except one point - to only leave a trade for 30 secs no more - but this I consider to be correct at the sharp end of the market only Nikki 2-Jan-2005 Sun 18:01 hey david waz up Nikki 2-Jan-2005 Sun 18:02 im a girl Nikki 2-Jan-2005 Sun 18:02 helllllllloooooooooooooooooooooo? Nikki 2-Jan-2005 Sun 18:03 are u ther Nikki 2-Jan-2005 Sun 18:04 g2g cause u anet talkin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! horatio 4-Jan-2005 Tue 19:26 Malc, Is this site dead? It seems to have degenerated somewhat with no useful postings of late. Who is Nikki? Mike Roger 5-Jan-2005 Wed 17:09 Have now re-sold my book via Amazon - a useful little feature of their service. Autobet 6-Jan-2005 Thu 15:39 Just a note to let everyone know that we were aware of a couple of issues with Autobet Pro and have now rectified them all. Like the Stop-Loss problem and intermitant `Green Arrow`. So all new users will use the new version and current users can download the new version, although I`ve emailed all that need to know. We are currently working on the migration of all our software to the API and these should be available by the end of next month. In the meanwhile there will be two new apps which should be available from the end of the month. Both will be extremely useful but I dont want to say too much at the moment. horatio 11-Jan-2005 Tue 07:44 Malc, Some time ago you mentioned that due to the way you trade, you do not need an enhanced refresh rate. Would you just outline the reason for this please? Also, even farther back, Foinavon said one should back at Lay odds and Lay at back odds. Are you able to explain this to me as I am not able to get my head around the logic of this at the moment. Mike Sundew 11-Jan-2005 Tue 08:25 horatio - an answer to your question. Foinavon taught this to me. When trading, you lay the horse at lower odds than you back. ie, I look in the blue column to see how the prices are going. Say I lay the horse at 10, when this is taken, I then look at the prices in the pink column to find a higher price to take for the back bet,say 11.5 or 12. Then just wait for your price to be taken. I do back at just .5 higher than the lay price, because this gives a small profit, and you can then go in and do the trade several times. There is a tool on the Tools and Systems section of this site, "a betting calculator". It is fantastic and tells you what stake to use for your trading. Hope this helps. Ann Sundew 11-Jan-2005 Tue 08:27 horatio - I still use the betfair refresh that I downloaded from this site too. Ann Roger 11-Jan-2005 Tue 09:01 Ann, --"A betting calculator"-- are you talking about the arbitrage calc? horatio 11-Jan-2005 Tue 13:44 Sundew, Thank you . Mike chelters 15-Jan-2005 Sat 21:23 just registered. look forward to plenty of info for chelters chelters 15-Jan-2005 Sat 21:27 I`ve looked at the rest but Best Mate meets the test.Can`t see anything getting up the hill ahead of him.Beef or salmon not a threat. Roger 17-Jan-2005 Mon 10:02 Hi, chelters, you appear to be in the wromg forum - this one is for book discussion, and trading. You need yo be in the main UKHR forum. chelters 17-Jan-2005 Mon 20:08 sorry Roger I`ll just be on my way. All the best Roger 2-Feb-2005 Wed 20:51 Malc, I have just re-read this entire forum and, whilst it is not currently being used to any extent, there IS a lot of useful content. So before you convert this to a discussion centre for the ratings-reading pages, could you archive it somewhere for future use, please?