UK Horse Racing

Closely Rated Horses, 2008-2009

Introduction

In March 2010 there was a small discussion raised on the forum about 'Tight Races'. These are races which we've arbitarily declared as being within fourteen pounds rated from the top rated horse to the penultimate horse in the race.

We settled on the penultimate horse rather than the bottom rated horse as there could be a total rag in what would be an otherwise tight race.

Anyway, discussions were discussed and one member raised the question of what if we looked at all the horses rated within fourteen pounds in every race? Holmes then proceeded to do a series of reports, such as this one, and determined that fourteen pounds wasn't the optimum value but perhaps rated twelve or ten pounds within the top rated horse.

Reading this report is fairly straightforward, here's an example of the return (to BF SP) for horses running within 12lb of the top rated horse over five furlongs.

Here we can see, for the win market, there have been 1,326 winners from 9,959 eligible horses. This gives us a strike rate of 13.3%, a profit of 502.7 points which is a return on investment (ROI) of 5.05%. Then follows the figures in a similar format for the place market.

Here it must be noted that there is more than likely to be more than one runner per race so, therefore, the apparant race to race strike rate will be higher.

The figures which stand out are the All Weather stakes, Chase stakes and Flat stakes.

Addenda

Two more report files based upon the AW, Chase, Flat and NHF can be downloaded from here.

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