News
A Dead Cert?
27th February 2007
In the hours before the 2007 Carling Cup final was about to kick-off a 'dead cert' laying scheme was discovered.
Readers of a certain internet forum spotted something which offered any layers a 140% overround in their favour. It seemed to be too good to be true.
The original poster put forward the notion that if each player were to be dutched to not be the first scorer (i.e. laying every player in the market) then surely with such an overround a profit couldn't fail to be made. So some people did just that and they found that their Betfair screens were all green and that they were simply onto a winner and the couldn't lose...
...or could they?
It seems that they failed to consider the fact that they were also laying players who weren't going to start and thus would be removed from the Betfair market making their expected returns significantly different. The two threads which should be read are as follows.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=386063
and
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=386241
The point of this article is not to have a go at these people. After all they were only trying to do what good traders were supposed to do; find a good edge and take advantage of it. The point of this article is a warning; before leaping in with a sure-fire dead-cert can't lose scheme make sure that, like a good trader, one should know the ins and outs of what is happening and be aware of the pitfalls.
So when you see something that is too good to be true it may well be just that. In this case this wasn't a fraudulent scheme but circumstances which those laying didn't consider until it was too late.
We had someone on the forum at the end of 2006 (who has now gone on to make his own website) who would forever place bets on the exchanges and not even know the basic rules for the market in which he entered and sometimes get himself into some dreadful pickles. So, be cautious and consider the possibilities before venturing forth on anything which looks too good to be true. It usually is and there doesn't have to be a crook behind it neither. Please be warned.