UK Horse Racing Newsletter

UK Horse Racing incorporating Weak Favourites

Number 18

8th March, 2010

www.ukhorseracing.co.uk


Introduction

Welcome to another slightly delayed Newletter.

This issue we're looking at a new angle; closely rated horses to the top rated horse which looks good in some stakes racing. We're also looking again at an old favourite which has been neglected. There's the up and coming Cheltenham Festival competition which ought to be fun and an update on the latest set of filters for the bot.

Apart from this lot we've still got a lot of things to do. One of the current projects is converting all of the back-history of the CSV files with results going back to 2005 into a database for everyone to analyse and to find new angles. This is, obviously, non-trivial work and we hope to have an intial database ready for distribution sometime this month.


The Lab Notes

The Lab Notes are a collection of reports, .csv files and Excel files which are available to download and examine.

All of the Lab Notes can be found here: http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/lab/index.asp, and they really ought to be a first port of call for anyone wishing to see what our data has produced in the past few years. We have tried to use the Betfair SP throughout and, when not available, we've got a 'pseudo' Betfair SP price in its place. This is because a lot of our data goes back further than Betfair gave us the option of their SP prices.

Apologies to those who have read that paragraph above in the last Newsletter but we do try to encourage you all to examine and to go through the data both in the Lab Notes and in the Archives in order to find new approaches and new angles.

This morning a new Lab Note was published and it's rather interesting as, for a change, it doesn't involve any underscored rated horses.

Lab Note 55 - Tightly Rated Horses

If we look here http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/lab/labnotes055.asp (Lab Note 52) we can examine the returns of horses which are rated within twelve pounds of the top rated horse.

All prices are to BF SP, for GB only and cover the years 2008-2009.

The ones which do stand out as interesting are the stakes racing particularly in the All Weather, Chase and Flat races where in each of these races every horse rated within twelve pounds of the top rated horse is backed.

The figures for these stake races are:

               win    run   profit      SR%    ROI%

All Weather    292   2361     +210    12.4%    8,9%
Chase          279   1120     +240    24.9%   21.5%
Flat           381   2741     +562    13.9%   20.5%

Looking at the report one could possibly add a couple more items to this list. But, as it stands 1,000 points in a couple of years is not to be sniffed at.

Also consider that the real race-by-race strike rate will be higher as there will be more than one selection per race.

This is worth having, for the bot users, as having as a portfolio on a machine of its own just running these. There will be a new filter built within the next day or two so that one can build a portfolio like this.


Cheltenham Festival Competition

As always we are running our Cheltenham Festival naps competition. It's free to enter, a bit of fun and there's a prize on offer for the most profitable entrant.

All you have to do is to register at http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/NapsCompetition/default.asp and simply put in a selection for each race and, if you so wish, a daily nap from those.

The winner simply gets a free month's worth of the ratings.

Don't worry about the registration business being an eMail harvesting exercise; it isn't. We just need your eMail to notify you that you've won; assuming that you have won, of course.

It's a bit of fun and well worth the time to putting selections together each morning.


Holmes' Results Grabber

Most of you will know that Holmes, one our members, has written for us a data grabber which fills in the CSV files with the results from previous days including the Offical SP and the Betfair SP prices.

This is a reminder that the users of Holmes' Results Grabber ought to go to the members area to upgrade to the latest version as soon as possible.


A Forgotten System

One system which has been ticking away nicely and has been forgotten is the Top Rated System.

This is an agglomeration of six systems which are all based on the top rated selections in various race types.

It's a shame that this one has been overlooked of late as it's been ticking over nicely, even if one wishes to do it to one point per underscore. Now, looking at the figures from 2006-2009 after Betfair commission of five percent we see these numbers (all derived from the top five rated spreadsheet which is available for download from the Lab Notes).

Yesterday, the seventh of March, there were five selections. There was one winner at 14/1.

Bot users who wish to use this ought to look for the TopRatedSystem system name. The portfolio then created will be for one point per horse but if one wishes to make a one point per underscore set of portfolios then create twelve portfolios with the 'TopRatedSystem' system and then 'AND' each of them with an underscore in turn.

As ever, do shout if you have any difficulties.


Recent Bot Filters And Additions

This information is taken from this page: http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/UKHRBot/UKHorseRacingBot6Downloads.asp where all updates to the Bot's filters are maintained.

Horses Not Top 20pc RAdj
Lists all the horses whose RAdj (top rated animal rated after weight for age modifications) is not within 20% of the highest RAdj value within that race. This filter will only list a few horses.

Horses Not Top 20pc Percentile RAdj
Lists all the horses whose RAdj is not within the top 20% percentile RAdj values within that race. This filter should list approximately 80% of the horses within the race.

RDist Underscore
Lists all the horses whose Distance Regression is the highest in the race and is positive.

RGoing Underscore
Lists all the horses whose Going Regression is the highest in the race and is positive.

Regression Going 1
Lists all the horses whose Going Regression is 1.0 or greater. There is also a corresponding place filter.

Regression Distance 1
Lists all the horses whose Distance Regression is 1.0 or greater. There is also a corresponding place filter.


Betfair Accounts Application

This is a small application which we are continually developing but it's a simple way to keep track of one's account levels during the day.

It is especially useful for those who use any bots, be it the UK Horse Racing bot or any other automatic betting application. For example, if one has a number of bots running on different machines then one could run this application on one's main machine and then see how they are doing throughout the day without getting up and running from computer to computer. For example, we have six computers here at The Sheep Shed all running the UK Horse Racing bot, and we can keep track of what's going on without having to leave our seats.

Another feature of this application is that it can send eMails at pre-programmed intervals to any eMail address. This is particularly useful for those with mobile phones are who are away at the workplace and wish to get regular eMail updates. This application is also useful for those who have eMail facilities at work and don't mind receiving such updates there.

Lastly, the Betfair Accounts application dumps the end of day totals to a .csv file so that a daily log of the account totals are maintained.

This application is free to use for anyone running a Windows computer. It will be continually improved and updated. The current version is 0.14. Further details can be found here, http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/BFAccounts.asp.

We would like to point out that the only communication from this application is with the Betfair exchanges and no data is sent anywhere else.


That's all for now for this newsletter. So, until the next time, see you in the short queue.

Yours sincerely,
The UK Horse Racing Team

malcolm.smith@dragondrop.com


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