Hello again.
Gosh, two newsletters within the space of a month; things are getting back on track!.
The reason for this newsletter is that over the past few weeks we've been discussing the Top-3 GB TC selections (the 'TC' is an abbreviation for Profitable Trainer at Course) on the forum and due to one thing and another (mostly my current state of confusion brought on by lots of unwelcome real-life incidents) I have been saying that I am looking at certain angles within these.
It's only in the last few days when I was using the Data Analysis Tool when I realised that I should be looking elsewhere entirely and not only was I doing the wrong systems but I have been telling everyone the same.
So, this is a many pronged correction. I have already updated Lab Note 70 and I have already updated the notes on the Top-3 GB TC selections page in the Members Area and I have made some posting on the forum. What I need to do is to make sure that everyone can see what I am going to do here in the newsletter as well.
We have also a small notification from our chums at StakeSoft. This isn't really an advert where we've taken the money and run but something we've popped into the newsletter for our chums whom we know well and products that we use.
The product in question from StakeSoft is JetBet and it is something that I use to place bets onto Betfair manually; it's certainly faster then the normal BetFair web interface. Anyway, do have a look and, yes, I do think it's nifty.
Have a good read of this newsletter and enjoy the festivities over the next few days.
Nadolig Llawen!
- Malc
We've been looking at the Top-3 Rated horses which have Profitable Trainer at Course figures over the past five years. These are the Top-3 GB TC selections.
These are limited non Irish racing for the simple reason a good angle for these in Ireland can't be found. Yes, there are some which we have located but the amount of data points is certainly not statistically significant so we've decided to make sure that these are tracks based on the British mainland only.
There are four interesting angles to investigate and the full criteria can be seen in the following links.
You should note that the fourth of thse, specifically the Chase angle, only looks at the Top-2 rated and not the Top-3.
There is a lot of stuff to follow, it's worth sitting down with a cup of tea and working through these and see how these TC Top-3 should be used. I hope that you will agree that the figures here are so dramatic that it was essential for me to reiterate the results from the Data Analyst Tool so that you can get the optimum from these selections.
No chase racing for this one, but anything else which runs on the British mainland in the Top-3 of the ratings is to be examined.
Also avoid races which are classed lower than 90 and also above 130. In other words, we're looking at the bulk of the better races without concerning ourselves at the very top end as the profit isn't there because those those horses are exposed to the betting public.
Finally, we're skipping Novice races.
We're looking for horses which are flagged as those which are saddled as Profitable Trainer at Course (TC) and also are Ranked RAdj horses (i.e. horses which are marked as bold in the ratings in the RAdj field).
Almost ten thousand runs, a strike rate of 22% and an ROI of just over 8%.
Yes, that's good. Though fewer selections could be had if the Race Class were restricted to between 110 and 120 and with a better strike rate and a far better ROI.
Runs Wins Profit SR % ROI % LDA% 1.00% Stake
WIN: All 9,720 2,178 780.88 22.41 8.03 86.53 4,342.43
WIN: All Value 4,900 582 630.32 11.88 12.86 90.92 1,880.73
WIN: All Profitable JC 2,396 592 310.87 24.71 12.97 73.29 784.06
WIN: All Profitable TC 9,720 2,178 780.88 22.41 8.03 86.53 4,342.43
WIN: All Profitable TJ 2,833 636 127.93 22.45 4.52 68.68 140.51
WIN: All Profitable TJC 3,521 878 255.03 24.94 7.24 70.58 357.06
WIN: GB AW Stakes 1,386 409 170.77 29.51 12.32 43.99 370.93
WIN: GD-SFT 988 226 222.06 22.87 22.48 40.93 529.77
WIN: 10 furlongs 977 214 172.47 21.90 17.65 47.93 345.94
WIN: Age 5 1,198 259 186.92 21.62 15.60 47.48 317.27
WIN: Race Class >=110 <120 2,282 566 458.16 24.80 20.08 48.19 3,143.52
WIN: U Jockey 1,444 424 181.63 29.36 12.58 52.59 388.44
WIN: U Frm 1,132 338 185.62 29.86 16.40 28.47 425.63
WIN: U Cls 1,524 403 209.10 26.44 13.72 56.51 395.64
AW WIN: Stakes 1,386 409 170.77 29.51 12.32 43.99 370.93
AW WIN: GB Stakes 1,386 409 170.77 29.51 12.32 43.99 370.93
AW WIN: GB AW Stakes 1,386 409 170.77 29.51 12.32 43.99 370.93
AW WIN: Race Class >=110 <120 848 204 146.36 24.06 17.26 31.41 307.13
AW WIN: = 15.00 < 25.00 248 28 241.75 11.29 97.48 28.94 780.13
Flat WIN: All Value 2,513 306 283.04 12.18 11.26 84.85 346.47
Flat WIN: Race Class >=110 <120 1,256 323 273.53 25.72 21.78 49.92 833.68
Flat WIN: Rank WinF 1,540 340 177.66 22.08 11.54 52.23 304.56
Flat WIN: Rank HCP 1,799 482 203.09 26.79 11.29 43.57 424.12
NH Flat WIN: Race Class >=100 <110 357 110 145.66 30.81 40.80 22.93 330.89
NH Flat WIN: Rank TrForm 167 62 137.90 37.13 82.58 12.67 321.69
Hurdle WIN: Age 5 211 63 141.21 29.86 66.92 19.27 325.05
The second of these which excludes Chase racing. These are looking in races below Race Class 120 and for Top-3 rated horses which have the Trainer at Course indicated as profitable (TC) as well as the Ranked Raw field.
Races on ground which are forecast as Good going are excluded as well.
Even thought this one doesn't have a massive ROI one, however, which has a return of 7.79% after BF Tax after almost eight and a half thousand runs certainly has to make one sit up and take note.
If £100 were in a bank staking these to 1% stakes at the start of 2008 then entering December of 2011 that £100 would now be at over £7.800.
Runs Wins Profit SR % ROI % LDA% 1.00% Stake
WIN: All 8,464 2,117 659.58 25.01 7.79 66.19 7,845.97
WIN: All Value 3,639 482 485.05 13.25 13.33 85.80 1,468.93
WIN: All Profitable JC 2,195 605 217.32 27.56 9.90 66.59 441.38
WIN: All Profitable TC 8,464 2,117 659.58 25.01 7.79 66.19 7,845.97
WIN: All Profitable TJ 2,609 634 8.24 24.30 0.32 85.01 52.56
WIN: All Profitable TJC 3,404 914 131.36 26.85 3.86 71.48 149.69
WIN: GB Flat Handicap 1,754 349 244.19 19.90 13.92 45.54 498.89
WIN: GB AW Stakes 1,435 446 258.68 31.08 18.03 40.34 863.01
WIN: 8 furlongs 1,359 358 230.25 26.34 16.94 51.55 595.86
WIN: Alarm 'd' 765 170 163.07 22.22 21.32 47.34 340.77
WIN: Bias 10% 985 236 159.86 23.96 16.23 48.37 318.91
WIN: Claiming 393 122 138.86 31.04 35.33 16.94 340.90
WIN: Age 5 1,218 322 272.64 26.44 22.38 34.08 863.07
WIN: Race Class < 100 1,626 374 179.46 23.00 11.04 65.22 332.23
WIN: Race Class >= 90 <100 1,626 374 179.46 23.00 11.04 65.22 332.23
WIN: Race Class >=110 <120 1,717 467 365.60 27.20 21.29 45.73 1,777.73
WIN: U Jockey 1,286 409 180.28 31.80 14.02 36.43 415.39
WIN: Rating Rank: 2 2,762 622 347.15 22.52 12.57 46.27 1,128.01
AW WIN: Stakes 1,435 446 258.68 31.08 18.03 40.34 863.01
AW WIN: GB Stakes 1,435 446 258.68 31.08 18.03 40.34 863.01
AW WIN: GB AW Stakes 1,435 446 258.68 31.08 18.03 40.34 863.01
AW WIN: Claiming 254 82 128.45 32.28 50.57 14.37 316.42
AW WIN: Rank Trainer 1,737 492 258.49 28.32 14.88 28.66 792.91
AW WIN: = 15.00 < 25.00 197 23 211.38 11.68 107.30 25.28 608.78
Flat WIN: All Value 1,551 206 220.14 13.28 14.19 57.23 339.06
Flat WIN: Handicaps 1,754 349 244.19 19.90 13.92 45.54 498.89
Flat WIN: GB Handicap 1,754 349 244.19 19.90 13.92 45.54 498.89
Flat WIN: GB Flat Handicap 1,754 349 244.19 19.90 13.92 45.54 498.89
Flat WIN: Bias 10% 533 140 169.47 26.27 31.80 31.61 396.35
Flat WIN: Race Class >=110 <120 792 222 192.53 28.03 24.31 43.78 470.75
Flat WIN: Rank RAdj 2,755 693 290.73 25.15 10.55 69.04 629.22
Flat WIN: Rank Jockey 1,567 450 217.41 28.72 13.87 47.02 523.95
Flat WIN: Rank Spd 1,669 460 197.55 27.56 11.84 46.89 390.82
Flat WIN: Rank HCP 1,457 400 186.64 27.45 12.81 40.06 399.64
There really can't be anything wrong with this at all.
Over two and a half thousand runs and a strike rate of over 26% plus an ROI (after 5% Betfair tax) of almost 13%.
The rules for these are straightforward, like the others; Top-3 rated within the British mainland and avoid any races which has a race class of less than 90 and then simply go for any horse which has a Profitable Trainer at Course (TC) and also with the Frm value underscored.
Runs Wins Profit SR % ROI % LDA% 1.00% Stake
WIN: All 2,657 703 344.18 26.46 12.95 58.56 1,231.81
WIN: All Value 1,139 183 319.52 16.07 28.05 50.08 1,174.58
WIN: All Profitable JC 736 220 272.02 29.89 36.96 22.36 1,012.48
WIN: All Profitable TC 2,657 703 344.18 26.46 12.95 58.56 1,231.81
WIN: All Profitable TJC 1,131 329 275.83 29.09 24.39 46.47 973.23
WIN: Handicaps 1,599 359 189.04 22.45 11.82 54.63 361.72
WIN: Stakes 1,058 344 155.14 32.51 14.66 38.18 340.54
WIN: GD-SFT 417 102 140.59 24.46 33.71 31.62 307.22
WIN: 8 furlongs 368 101 129.86 27.45 35.29 35.90 307.68
WIN: Race Class >=100 1,984 522 272.26 26.31 13.72 52.84 728.87
WIN: Race Class >=100 <110 1,439 380 225.75 26.41 15.69 50.25 535.67
WIN: U Lst 1,221 355 144.73 29.07 11.85 46.64 301.13
WIN: U Frm 2,657 703 344.18 26.46 12.95 58.56 1,231.81
WIN: Rank Raw 1,326 423 177.67 31.90 13.40 31.32 422.06
WIN: Rank RAdj 1,046 340 223.88 32.50 21.40 29.82 634.47
WIN: Rank Lst 2,287 613 277.16 26.80 12.12 64.45 726.81
WIN: Rank Frm 2,657 703 344.18 26.46 12.95 58.56 1,231.81
WIN: Rank Cls 876 293 153.39 33.45 17.51 36.38 347.35
WIN: Rank Spd 1,314 370 184.80 28.16 14.06 49.11 397.44
WIN: Rank HCP 1,345 397 181.35 29.52 13.48 31.99 431.49
The rules for these are quite simple. Top-2 rated Chase races within Great Britain, where the horse is flagged at with a Profitable Trainer at Course (TC) and also Profitable Jockey at Course (JC) pairing.
Avoiding races classed between 60 and 79.9 is also advised.
Please note that this is the only one of these four which looks at the top-2 only; the others look within the top three rated horses.
The figures from 2008 to the end of November 2011, after 5% BF Tax, are shown below.
Runs Wins Profit SR % ROI % LDA% 1.00% Stake
WIN: All 859 234 122.21 27.24 14.23 51.34 250.19
WIN: All Value 353 61 128.13 17.28 36.30 43.35 282.77
WIN: All Profitable JC 859 234 122.21 27.24 14.23 51.34 250.19
WIN: All Profitable TC 859 234 122.21 27.24 14.23 51.34 250.19
WIN: All Profitable TJ 317 90 24.45 28.39 7.71 25.83 118.31
WIN: All Profitable TJC 616 168 24.44 27.27 3.97 52.92 108.64
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I was asked the other day how I went about reading the ratings when I do things manually.
To be honest the ratings do seem to be rather confusing to the newcomer and I have been encouraged to write a page on how I go about things.
The Reading The Ratings page isn't completed as yet but I am always adding stuff to it and, as of today, I am just about to get involved with the Detailed Ratings.
There are at the moment two Case Studies of two races (written before the race started) which explained how I went about reading the ratings for those races. Note that the first of these Case Studies, the 2.10 Kempton Park (17th December 2011), does give a good overview of the detailed ratings.
Do keep these pages bookmarked as more will be added shortly.
I'm signing off differently this time; I won't wish to see anyone in The Short Queue as the only queue that I am interested in right now is for the egg nog in our kitchen. But I do hope that you find this newsletter interesting especially regarding the Top-3 TC selections. All I have to do now is to work out how I am going to implement these myself.
The ratings for Boxing Day are already posted so it's time for me to wish you a Happy Christmas and I am going to enjoy my holiday break until Boxing Day when I hope to see you all on the forum again.
Yours sincerely,
The UK Horse Racing Team
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