UK Horse Racing (Selections)

UK Horse Racing

Ratings Explanation

	*Racecard Overview*
Item	Explanation
Rating	The UKHR rating after all of the regressions and systems have been added to each horse in the race. The rating is valid for this race only and cannot be carried over to any other race because the conditions of entry may change. Such things include the course, distance, going, stall, jockey, trainer as well as a number of other indicators which we are using mathematics to describe.
No	Saddlecloth number of the horse. This number also appears next to the horse name on the television and in the newspapers.
Stl	The stall number from which the horse will start from if, of course, stalls are used in the starting of this race.
Stl%	The advantage, or disadvantage, of starting from this particular stall. This is our own generated figure and it's calculated on the number of runners in the race and going.
Horse	The horse's name.
Days	The number of days since the horse last run. A negative number indicates that the horse last ran in another type of race. Race type is defined as being one of 'flat', 'all-weather', 'hurdles', 'chases' and 'NH flat'.
Runs	The number of runs which have been taken into consideration for our ratings. Any races which took place too far back in the past is disregared for our computations. Therefore, this figure may not necessarily reflect the number of races of this type which it took part in.
Regr g	The regression figure which describe's the horse rating on this type of surface. The larger the number the better the regression rating for the ground surface.
Regr d	The regression figure which describe's the horse rating over this distance. The larger the number the better the regression rating for the distance.
w/r/c	The number of wins (w) that the horse has clocked up whilst (r) reflects how many were acheived recently and, lastly, (c) indicates how many times the horse has won at this course.
Age Wt	The horse's age and weight. The weight is given in stones and pounds. This weight is the total weight that the horse has to carry in this race.
WtD	The horse's weight delta which means the horse's weight as compared with the average weight for the race.
Raw	The horse's base rating, as determined by the UKHR software model. This value will be adjusted for a number of reasons, typically going, distance, weight and jockey, for each race finally ending up as the 'Rating' value (see column 1).
Jockey	The jockey's rating for this race. Further details on the jockey can be seen on the form reports for the horse.
Trainer	The trainer's rating for this race. Further details on the trainer can be seen on the form reports for the horse.
Conn	The sum contribution of the effects of the Trainer and the Jockey.
Frm	Form. The recent form trend over the last three runs. This can be thought as as a simple weighted moving average, but where the difference lies is that is three run trend is then compared with the last ten runs to give this form value.
Lst	The form figure for the last race ran.
Cls	The number of pounds better, or worse, the horse is over its main competitors today. For this value, like most of the values on the ratings the bigger the number is the better.
WinF	Proven Winning Form. The proven ability of this horse to win at this, or better, class.
Speed	The speed modifier in pounds which helps transform the raw rating into the final rating.
Alm	Alarms, both positive and negative, for the running here today. b beaten favourite last time out d new distance e won easily last time g new going t new trainer + significant drop in class - significant rise in class c coupled with top weight in handicap m minimum class race to date p lowest odds to date W previous winner in this race one or more years ago 1 system bet: very recent win 2 system bet: recent place in handicap 3 system bet: recent good place, high end of weights 4 system bet: beaten 2yo favourites on 2nd run 7 system bet (experimental): particularly good speed or good trip or multiple recent winner.
CPos	Class Position. The Model's forecast finishing position of the horse if Class Ability of the horse were the only decisive factor.
HCP	Historical Win Class Probability. A percentage (where 1.0 is 100%) of the horse winning at this class, or going close enough to win, in the past.
FCP	Future Win Class Probability. Taking all of the Historical Win Class Probabilities into account these are then normalised to 100% (where 100% is 1.0) giving the probability of each horse winning this race if the race were to be decided on historical class performances only.
Value	Value Rating. The Model's suggested value price of the horse, i.e. what the Model considers that the Starting Price (SP) ought to be
SP	Starting Price. The forecast Starting Price (SP) of the horse when it starts.


	*Detailed Form Listing*
	Please note that these form lists only lists each horse's form in the same type of race. Therefore, for example, if the race today is a hurdle then only the horse's hurdling record would be shown.
Item	Explanation
Date	The date which the race took place.
Days	The number of days between this race and the previous race. Useful for determining how a horse likes to deal with long or short lay-offs.
Course	The course where the horse ran.
Dist	The distance over which the race was run. The distance shown is in furlongs.
Posn	Showing where the horse finished up.
Lens	If applicable, this shows how many lengths the horse finished up behind the winner. If the horse either won or failed to complete then, for obvious reasons, we cannot give the number of lengths.
Wt (Ex)	The weight the horse carried in the race. The figure is shown in stones and pounds. Thus '10-06' would show that the horse is carrying ten stones and six pounds in total weight. The '(Ex)' shows if there are any weight additions or subtractions given to the horse for various reasons. Any head gear indicators would also be listed here.
Class	Two figures presented here. The first is the Class Rating as determined by the UKHR Model as to the level of the competition in that race. This is a powerful indicator which allows one to see the true quality of the races the horse has competed in during his history. The second figure is the normal accepted Class letter when a race is declared. The UKHR Model takes no notice whatsoever of this value as the class is determined by whom the horse is competing against.
Jockey JRating	The name of the jockey and his rating figure.
Cont	The contribution that the jockey gave the horse.
Trainer TRating	The name of the trainer and his/her rating figure. Note that we haven't gone for things like whether the trainer is in form or not. This is because, statistically, when people mention this fact they are talking nonsense. How does one know if a trainer is in form or not? The number of recent winners? The numbers of losers which people are talking about in these situations is nothing of statistical value and, besides, who can say whether these last races were run in races that the horses should have won or not. We have found that a plain trainer rating is sufficient and accurate without adding needless levels of complication which, statistically, we feel that cannot be measured.
Speed	Speed Rating. The speed figure which the UKHR Model gave to the horse in that race.
Race	Race Rating. A powerful indicator which rates the horse's run in that race.
Raw	Raw Horse Rating. This is the raw horse rating at the time of the start of the race. The UKHR Model starts off with this rating and by various ajustments from a plethora of different modifiers comes up with the final rating figure. Most other ratings only work with a raw value but since that each race is run under different conditions then this is where the UKHR Model has an advantage over other ratings available elsewhere.
RGoing	The horse's regressional analysis figure of his ability to handle the going on that day. A powerful indicator which should be non-negative if one is to back the horse in this race.
RDist	The regressional analysis figure for the horse's ability to handle the distance of the race. As with the going regression figure this should be non-negative before backing a horse.
RTime	A slightly different regressional analysis figure which is based on the horse's trend through its career and has nothing to do with speed. This indicator can give a good idea of whether the horse is improving or not.