Systems
Right To Left Back - A System Modification
We post a list of Right To Left (RTLs) on a daily basis. These are horses which have a good number of positive indicators but no negatives. We post them as a list of horses to examine rather than as a backing system. However, one member has found a system which seems to make these into a profitable selection system and has kindly offered to share them with us. He's asked for anonymity but is happy to share his findings with us.
I started off looking at all the RTLs from the period March 2006 to January 2007. They would have got 5167 points from 5915 selections, or 87% of original stakes. I then divided them into race types, distinguishing further between handicaps and non-handicaps. Handicap selections did noticeably worse (82%) than the non-handicaps (95%), which just creep into profitability if you take into account BF prices and commission. But what really caught my attention was the 100% return from all-weather non-handicaps, which I usually find the most difficult races to make profitable.
I tried sorting these further using different filters: trainer form, CPos, rating/class ratios, and SP, without much luck, and then I looked at the rating positions. Surprisingly, the top-rated selections only returned 68%, while the non-top-rated got 120%.
Pretty impressive, but we can do even better than that. The best-priced winner was at 16/1 SP, but its forecast SP was 12/1. Removing the 38 selections over this price puts the returns at 138% from 254 selections, and a 21.7% strike rate.
Using the same filters, I went back to last winter (Nov 05 to Feb 06), and the results, while less spectacular, were still profitable (107 points from 101 bets)
This month so far (February 2007), from 18 selections, weve had six winners at the following prices: 4/1, 9/2, 6/1, 15/2, 11/2 and 16/1. A total of 49.5 points, or 272% returns on the original stakes!
Unfortunately, I was not on any of these, as the system Im using at the moment excludes AW non-handicaps. There were qualifiers yesterday and today which I backed and, typically, they came third and second respectively! Its a good job that I do place backing as well!
So, in summary, here are the filters:
Right-to-Left selection modifications
- All Weather Non-Handicaps
- Not Top-Rated
- Forecast SP maximum 12/1
I've also attached the stats in an Excel document.