Over the course of the last week I have been working on finding a smooth graph for the low priced underscores. With the help of Holmes, who made some specially designed reports, I was able to make a number of spreadsheets, which are also here for those who wish to do their own analysis, and then look for smooth curves for various combinations.
The resulting curve for the final spreadsheet, which has merged all these into one sheet in date order, looks like this. This is for the seventeen months from the start of 2008 until May 2009 inclusive.
Please excuse the lack of dates along the bottom as I am not particularly proficient at Excel. I am sure that someone else may be able to do a better job.
The whole project was to look for low priced horses (forecast 5/1 or lower) who had more than one underscore from the ratings and these underscores perhaps complimented each other. This is one result, I dare say that there are many more.
All figures in the spreadsheets are from the first of 2008 until May of 2009. Where there wasn't a Betfair SP price the Staring Price was used instead.
The final spreadsheet which shows the graph and all the 7,439 selections which make up the graph can be downloaded here.
The source spreadsheets, including the original CSV data from Holmes, can be downloaded from here. This file will be useful for those wishing to research their own filters.
The portfolio file for the underscored pairs can be located here.
Cls/RAdj: GB only. Good-Firm, Good-Soft and Standard
Conn/Lst: GB only. Firm, Good-Soft and Standard
Conn/RAdj: GB only. Soft and Standard
Lst/RAdj: GB and Ireland. All goings.
RAdj/Trainer: GB only. Soft and Standard.
RAdj/WinF: GB only. Good-Firm, Good-Soft and Standard.
Lst/Spd: GB only. Firm, Good-Soft and Standard.
Jockey/Trainer: GB only. Good-Soft, Good and Soft.
The horses selected are all forecast to be 5/1 or lower.
The figures discovered in this 17 month period ended up with the following figures:
Runs - 7,439
Wins - 2,886
Profit - 1,232
Strike Rate - 38%
Return On Interest - 16%