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This Lab Note is another Excel file which contains all the runners which have a HCP value of at least 50 and which have run in Race Classes of 100 or more. The reason for this lab note is that these were doing fine over the flat in 2009 but they stopped performing in the National Hunt. So, a more detailed examination was required.
Looking through this spreadsheet it is clear that these two main filters do work really well when there are no obstacles, so much so that I am following these in the the following conditions: GB only, no hurdles nor chases. No novice races. No selling races of any description whatsoever. The figures can be improved by skipping the Soft and Good To Soft forecast conditions.
Following these simple filters we acheive the following returns since 2006 to the end of October 2009.
Run 3,680
Won 761
P/L 465.3
SR 20.7%
ROI 12.6%
All prices are to Holmes' pseudo BFSP which tend to be more pessimistic than the real BFSP. The prices are inclusive of Betfair's 5% deduction.
Of course, there may be other angles to be found here and this is just one possible way to follow these.
Item One. (Excel , any version)
HCP50Cls100.zip (1.1 MB).
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