Impact of the Differentials
Top-3 Rated Hurdles
A good way to demonstrate how powerful the Differentials are is with a quick example.
A run of the top-3 hurdles within the price range of 2.0-21.0 gives the following result.
Runs | Wins | Profit/Loss | Strike Rate | ROI |
30,856 | 5,967 | -1,197.92 | 19.3% | -3.9% |
All prices to Betfair SP after 5% commission. Years: 2010-2014
Considering that with three runners in every race a perfect strike rate would be 33% and that we would be guaranteed over 20,000 losing horses this isn't too bad a set of figures.
Obviously, we can't follow this as it makes a loss but it's a good place to start.
So let's look at the same races but this time we look at only those which have a positve one year class and weight differential:
Runs | Wins | Profit/Loss | Strike Rate | ROI |
16,846 | 3,372 | 292.22 | 20.0% | 1.7% |
All prices to Betfair SP after 5% commission. Years: 2010-2014
In fact, one can look the four major race types: Flat, All Weather, Hurdles and Chases for the positive class differentials in the top three and note that for each of the years 2010-2014 all of these race types were profitable each year.
This should show how strong these differentials are.