UK Horse Racing's Ratings
Number of Runs
Indicates the number of runs that the horse had in this type of racing and in this age group.
Because we at UK Horse Racing are concerned about each different type of racing and about keeping each type (the different types being flat, all-weather, chase, hurdles and national hunt flat racing) separate.
So, then, the number of runs are the number of runs that this horse has had in type of race.
But it also goes on a little further than this. If the horse has been running in this type of race for years and years the form from the initial races may not be valid any more. If the Model considers this to be the case then the number of runs will be less than what has actually happened.
In other words, we've tried to be a little clever here with the Model in that making sure that the right runs are considered for the ratings and the regressional analysis.
This value is limited to 8 runs, the maximum used to generate a rating. On the flat separate ratings are maintained for races with only 2-3 year old runners and for mixed age races with 3+ horses. Similarly separate ratings are maintained for horses running in 3-4 year old races and for 4+ horses.
It is particularly interesting to note how three year-olds fare as they enter the world of older horses. There is a weight for age scale that allows for three year-olds to lose a weight allowance as the season progresses. It does not seem up to much though. It seems to me that three year-olds running in mixed age races before June have little chance whilst those running after June seem to do really well. After June we never like to back against a popular three year-old have first run in mixed age races. This will be identified by a 'Runs' value of 0.
In the racing world people often exchange 'June', above, for 'Royal Ascot'
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